Despite the best attempts by math teachers across the world, including me in the first decade of this century, math is the subject that is most often cited as the one that people disliked the most when they were in school. While I do not enjoy this, I understand it, because math is difficult and only brilliant and sophisticated people like me could ever grasp such complex topics as addition and division.

I may have ever so slightly exaggerated my intelligence level in the previous sentence.

Math is difficult, however, especially because it often requires context in order to be fully understood, and in many cases, the context is as clear as pondwater. This is magnified when it comes to statistics, and why statisticians prefer to talk about confidence levels and ranges instead of providing a specific answer. Sports are chock full of statistics, but without painstaking work to evaluate the context of how those numbers happened, it is hard to truly feel like any particular statistic is a true differentiator among players or teams.

For example, Orlando City has allowed the most goals this season, “leading” the league in both the actual number of goals allowed and also in goals allowed per 90 minutes. There is no dispute about this, but there is also no context with those numbers as to why. The eye test says that the defense has not always looked cohesive on the field, and several starters have missed time due to injuries. The starting lineup in the last two games included Zakaria Taifi as the left back, and he does not have a lot of experience playing this position at the MLS level, or any level, yet

According to playoffstatus.com the Lions have also played the seventh-hardest schedule in the league, which certainly has not helped with keeping the ball out of the back of the net. At all. Because, as math clearly states, 2.45 goals allowed per 90 minutes = yikes.

On our site and on our PawedCasts we have focused a lot on the back line and its struggles, but it is Maxime Crépeau who is usually the one actually taking the ball out of the net. As with every goal allowed, there is a share of the blame pie that goes to each player, but in general, the heaviest responsibility is borne by the defenders and goalkeeper, so let’s take a look at the Canadian netminder’s performance thus far this season.

The analysts at American Soccer Analysis (ASA) have a goals added model specific to goalkeepers, built on top of six different metrics. At this point in the season, 37 goalkeepers have played at least 500 minutes, and Crépeau’s rank in each category and the overall rankings is shown in the table below.

The models are proprietary, and I am confident that they were designed to try to take as much into account as possible, but as much as it pains me to say as a math person, I think goalkeeping data is very noisy and is much more directional than precise. There are so many dependencies with every cross and shot that is played into the box, and models can try to account for them all but they are never able to do so.

As a case in point, FotMob also its own proprietary goalkeeper metrics, with its leading metric being goals prevented. What this boils down to is the number of actual goals allowed as compared to the amount of expected goals (xG) allowed, which is in and of itself a measure that sounds precise but has its own inherent flaws. Every shot from a particular grid on the field is assigned the same expected goal percentage, no matter the shooter, whether they were using their preferred foot, if they were shooting it with a clean look at goal or under duress, if the shot was true or was deflected, and a host of other aspects that could come into play on a shot.

Over thousands of shots the percentages are likely very close to the xG, but most goalkeepers have faced between 80-120 shots on target this season (Crépeau ranks second, at 135), and with that small of a sample there will be some major variation in the xG calculations. Crépeau ranks 25th in g+ from ASA but 12th in goals prevented on FotMob, so clearly there is something significantly different in its models as it relates to the shots he has faced. Matt Turner, however, is top on both metrics, but take a look at the shot charts from Turner and Crépeau from FotMob below (there is one goal on each side circled in red; sadly I could not remove that from the screenshot), and some of why that is can be explained visually.

Aside from Clark Kent, very few people on Earth can fly (is Clark Kent really a person, though? A question for another site). Turner has not seen any shots on target in the upper right-hand corner of his net thus far this season, whereas Orlando City’s opponents have put a bunch of shots there, in an extremely difficult location for Crépeau to save them. Neither goalkeeper has any control over that, and with such small samples of shots on target, the prevalence of shots to extremely difficult locations against Crépeau compared to Turner plays a large role in the differences in their rankings.

To be fair to Turner, he is an excellent goalkeeper. These illustrations are more about the effects on Crépeau’s rankings than to take away from Turner’s.

Another measure of goalkeeper statistics is save percentages by shots taken from inside and outside the box, which is tracked by Sofascore. This is a truly objective measure — no models or formulas, just the percentage of saves by the location of the shot. The chart below shows the differences in save percentages by each goalkeeper against the league average during the past two seasons (a value in the green quadrant would show a goalkeeper that saved a higher percentage of shots inside the box (x-axis) and outside the box (y-axis) than the league averages of 61% for inside the box and 83% for outside the box).

Both of Orlando City’s starters during the last two seasons were subpar against shots from long range (Crépeau is 10% below average, Gallese was 7% below), but El Pulpo was slightly better than average on shots from inside the box and Crépeau was nearly exactly dead on with the two-season average.

Hang on, though, because just when you thought this was objective, it kind of also is not. Outside the box means anywhere outside of the lines, and Orlando City has allowed nine shots from just on the other side of the line, including six from right in the semicircle at the top of the box. That is an incredibly dangerous location, but it counts as outside the box just the same as a 30-yard long-range attempt, a.k.a., the Luis Muriel Not-so-special.

Crépeau has allowed 10 goals on 38 shots from outside the box, but half of those goals are from 18-20 yards away and in the middle of the field, which is a more dangerous location than many locations inside the box.

Additionally, of those 10 outside -the-box goals only one has happened since the World Cup break. The Canadian was excellent during the World Cup and has been as well for the Lions since the season resumed. Perhaps playing for his country sparked this recent run of strong play, or perhaps he just needed time to settle in with his new team. Either way, Crépeau and Orlando City are only allowing 1.43 goals per game since the season resumed, a massive improvement compared to the 2.93 from the opening months.

It would have been nice if the team had only given up two instead of three at Minnesota, but then again, if not for some incredible plays by Crépeau in the first half, the Lions might have given up four or five, so only allowing three was actually somewhat positive.

And that is always the conundrum for goalkeepers. Giving up three goals was bad! Wait, but it probably should have been worse, so giving up three was good! The analytical models do not take into account that Robin Jansson passed a ball straight to Minnesota to give the Loons a quick counterattack against minimal defenders, or that Taifi was too far inside and double teaming a Loon instead of playing out on the left side where he should have been, allowing a wide-open attack in his area.

The statistics say three goals allowed against Minnesota, with precise physical locations of the shots and associated xG values, but as the ever-brilliant Mark Twain once said, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

The numbers tell some of the story of Crépeau’s performance against Minnesota and of his season so far, but having watched every minute of every game this season, I think the truth of the matter is that he has outperformed expectations and has been an excellent replacement after the departure of club legend Gallese.

And he has done it with only two arms, a statistically significant difference in arms than the eight of El Pulpo. That might be the only goalkeeping statistic that everyone agrees about from this article.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City and the Orlando Pride are both currently helmed by interim head coaches, but that might be where the similarities end. It’s quite an interesting time for the club given the circumstances, though interesting isn’t always a good thing. You shouldn’t expect any decisions to be made soon, but let’s look at where these two situations are similar and where they are decidedly different.

How We Got Here

Martin Perelman has been the interim head coach for Orlando City since the departure of Oscar Pareja. Prior to that he was the head coach of Orlando City B from 2022-2024. He then was promoted to assistant coach with the senior team, and has now been in charge for 19 regular-season matches, three Leagues Cup matches, and three U.S. Open Cup matches. He has a record of 11-9-5 across all competitions.

Perelman has at least one more Open Cup match, and 12 regular-season matches remaining to prove he deserves the job.

Yolanda Thomas was just announced as the interim head coach for the Orlando Pride on Monday. She was hired as an assistant coach for the Pride under Seb Hines in 2023. Unlike Perelman, Thomas has helped an Orlando team win some trophies. She will lead the Pride for the first time on Sunday.

Thomas only has eight regular-season matches to make her case for the position. I’m not including any playoff matches, as there is absolutely no guarantee that either team makes the post season.

The Decision Makers

Ricardo Moreira is the general manager and sporting director for Orlando City. He originally came to the club as the director of scouting in 2018. Luiz Muzzi was then brought in as general manager, and then Oscar Pareja was hired. Moreira worked under Muzzi for several years before taking over the position he now holds. It was Moreira who hired Perelman for the Orlando City B job and gave him the interim tag earlier this year. Moreira could have done a coaching search following the departure of Pareja but ostensibly decided that because of the World Cup he needed to — or simply could — hold off on looking for a bigger name to take over.

Caitlin Carducci is the vice president of soccer operations and general manager for the Orlando Pride. The club hired her after the departure of Haley Carter. Typically when a new GM comes on board, they like to hire their own coach and institute their own systems and style of play. Carducci walked into a club coming off a record-breaking 2024 season that saw the club win both the NWSL Shield and the NWSL Championship before barely missing out on the final again in 2025. Seb Hines had also won NWSL Coach of the Year in 2024. If Carducci had let Hines go immediately, there would have been riots. It was her decision to give Thomas the interim tag.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance?

Yes, there is a chance for both of these coaches, though I think the likelihood of either getting the full-time gig differs greatly. Perelman has had much more opportunity to prove he deserves the job. He could conceivably lead the team to a second U.S. Open Cup trophy and a seventh straight playoff berth. There have been zero rumors floating around about an earnest coaching search for Orlando City. I continue to believe that Moreira wants Perelman to give him enough reasons to offer him the permanent position. I’m not saying it’s the right thing to do, just that it is the impression that I get.

Carducci inherited Hines and his staff. Given the team is languishing in 12th in the standings with so few matches left to play, I believe that Carducci is employing Thomas to make the most out of a roster that will have a ton of turnover following the season. It’s not a recipe for success if you’re Thomas — or Hines, if I’m being honest — but that’s the hand she’s been dealt. It is possible that Thomas is being given the same chance that Hines was given when he took over for Amanda Cromwell, but I think it is unlikely. This is an opportunity for Thomas to show what she can do to hopefully get another gig elsewhere, and to give Carducci more time to find the coach she’s probably wanted since she was hired.

Those are my thoughts on the current situations, but I’d love to hear what your think in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

How’s it going, Mane Landers? It’s been a fairly hectic week for me so far, but things are starting to wind down as we get ready for the weekend. I was at least able to catch “Coyote vs. Acme” in theaters and highly recommend it if needing a laugh or even just some motivation to keep on keeping on. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Prepare for Home Game Amidst Changes

The Orlando Pride will play their first game since Seb Hines’s departure on Sunday when they host the Houston Dash. Following their 2-1 loss to the Utah Royals, the Pride have fallen to 12th in the NWSL standings with eight games remaining this season. Sunday’s match will be interim head coach Yolanda Thomas’s first game at the helm and she spoke on how she and the team have been navigating the changes this week while still preparing to take all three points.

Gary Lewis Named Orlando City Academy Director

Orlando City named Gary Lewis as its new academy director to oversee the club’s development pathway for young players. He joins Orlando from the Chicago Fire organization, where he served as the technical director of that club’s academy. Before coming to the U.S. for stints with the Philadelphia Union, Seattle Sounders, and New York Red Bulls, he was Liverpool’s head of youth development and coached one of Everton’s youth teams as well. Hopefully he’ll be able to take Orlando’s academy to another level.

All U.S. MLS Clubs Will Participate in 2027 U.S. Open Cup

After a couple of years of only partial participation, it was announced that the 2027 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup will feature all 27 MLS teams that are based in the U.S. The MLS teams will join the fray in the round of 64, which will take place in July against regional opponents from the first round. While the MLS NEXT Pro teams like Orlando City B that are affiliated with an MLS club can’t compete, the players will be able to play for their senior team in the tournament. With the shift in the MLS calendar starting next year, this tournament should be a nice way to showcase soccer across the country as the 2027-2028 MLS season gets rolling.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

The MLS secondary transfer window came to a close and several teams not named Orlando City made big moves as they prepare for the home stretch of the season. The Columbus Crew have a new Designated Player, signing midfielder Santiago Rodriguez from Botafogo in Brazil. St. Louis City also added some firepower, bringing in American forward Damion Downs on loan from Southampton through the 2027 Sprint Season with an option to buy. As for other players coming to the league, midfielder Giuliano Galoppo joined Atlanta United on loan from River Plate, FC Cincinnati signed midfielder David Doudera from Slavia Prague, and Inter Miami added 19-year-old forward Riquelme Fillipi from Palmeiras.

There were also notable moves between MLS clubs, with the Colorado Rapids receiving a club-record $12 million from St. Louis in exchange for Designated Player forward Rafael Navarro. Toronto FC acquired winger Lewis Morgan from San Diego FC for an international roster slot. San Diego also sent Sam Vines out on loan to the Houston Dynamo.

Free Kicks

• Enjoy Ivan Angulo and David Brekalo trading goals against each other in training.

• Pride forward Barbra Banda placed fourth on ESPN‘s power rankings of the top African women’s soccer players, finishing behind a trio of players from Malawi after the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.
• Here’s everything you need to know as the United States U-20 Women’s National Team prepares for the FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup, which kicks off this weekend. The Yanks’ first game will be against Italy on Sunday.
• New York City FC II is moving to Middlesex County in New Jersey and will play under a new brand identity there starting in July of 2027.
• The Washington Spirit transferred defensive midfielder Rebeca Bernal to Manchester United in the Women’s Super League.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!