Orlando City's Next Five Matches: Handicapping the Lions' Chances

Let's take a look ahead at Orlando City's next five opponents, and determine the likelihood the Lions have for wins, losses, or draws. To do so, we'll look at each team's overall record, its record either home or away (as appropriate), and how they have done in their last five games before the Copa break.

Let's be very clear. this is a subjective assesment of how I think we'll do in the next five matches. There's no need to get upset about anything, since you'll get the opportunity to vote for what you think.

June 18 - San Jose Earthquakes

Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

San Jose is 5-4-5 overall, and is sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference. However, when playing away the Earthquakes are 0-4-3. Just as importantly, both of their losses and one of the draws in their last five matches were played away from Avaya Stadium. San Jose has not been good when playing away, and given that Orlando City has not lost a game at home this season, here are the percentages of Orlando City's potential outcomes:

Win - 60%
Loss - 15%
Draw - 25%

June 25 - Toronto FC

Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

Toronto is 4-5-4 overall, and is sitting in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. The Reds have played nine of their games away, garnering a 3-4-2 record in those matches. In their last five games they are 1-2-2 with a loss in their only away game. Despite having 2015 Golden Boot winner, Sebastian Giovinco, Toronto has only scored 14 goals. Additionally, the Reds have a goal differential of -1. Orlando City, on the other hand, has scored 23 goals, and has a +2 goal differential. Given these factors, the Lions' percentages look like this:

Win - 50%
Loss - 20%
Draw - 30%

July 4 - FC Dallas

Location: Toyota Park Stadium, Frisco, TX

FC Dallas is 8-4-4 overall, and is sitting in second place in the Western Conference. Eight of those games were played at home, and much like Orlando City, FC Dallas has yet to lose on its own turf where the Hoops are 5-0-3. In their last five games, FC Dallas has not lost, posting a 3-0-2 record with two wins and one draw at home. Given that Orlando City is 1-3-2 when playing away, their possible outcomes are:

Win - 15%
Loss - 70%
Draw - 15%

July 8 - Houston Dynamo

Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

Houston is 3-7-4 overall, and is sitting in last place in the Western Conference. Eight of those games were played away, and Houston is 0-6-2 on the road. In its last five games, Houston is 1-2-2 with two losses and one draw when playing away. Unfortunately for the Dynamo, they have to visit Camping World Stadium on a Friday night. The only advantage will be the two days more rest they will have than Orlando City. Here are the percentages:

Win - 50%
Loss - 20%
Draw - 30%

July 13 - New York Red Bulls

Location: Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ

The New York Red Bulls are 6-7-1 overall, and sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference. Seven of those games were played at home, where they have posted a 5-2-0 record. Unfortunately, one of those wins was against Orlando City. In the last five games they are 3-1-1, with the draw coming against Orlando City in Orlando. This will be Orlando City's third game in 10 days, and second of those on the road. It is also an opportunity to take three points from an Eastern Conference foe. Here are the Lions' chances:

Win - 30%
Loss - 40%
Draw - 30%

While we can't be completely sure how Orlando will do over these next five games, I believe that there's a much better chance of a winning record than not. Realistically, 3-1-1 or 2-1-2 is not out of the question. Regardless, it will be fun to see what happens. Don't forget to vote in the poll and comment as well.

Vamos Orlando!