clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Orlando City Offense: Projecting Goals and Assists the Rest of the 2016 MLS Season

New, comments

What do Orlando City's offensive stats over the 2016 season so far tell us about how the scoring and assist leaders will finish the season?

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Well here we are at the break for the Copa America. It's the perfect time to take a look at where we are on offense, and project where we might be come season's end.

As one might suspect, Cyle Larin is topping the scoring charts with seven goals and three assists. However, Kevin Molino is right behind him with six goals and three assists. Let's take a look at the offensive stats this season.

2016 Games Played Pct. Games Played Goals Assists
Cyle Larin 12 92% 7 3
Kevin Molino 12 95% 6 3
Kaka 7 54% 2 5
Adrian Winter 11 85% 2 0
Julio Baptista 8 62% 1 2
Brek Shea 12 92% 1 1
Carlos Rivas 10 80% 1 1
Seb Hines 11 85% 1 0
Rafael Ramos 10 80% 0 2
Darwin Ceren 9 70% 0 1
Servando Carrasco 12 92% 0 1
Hadji Barry 4 31% 0 1

So what can we take from this going forward? Well, if we were to project based on what has happened so far, here is what it would look like.

2016 Games Played Pct. Games Played Goals Assists
Cyle Larin 33 97% 20 8
Kevin Molino 33 97% 17 8
Kaka 28 82% 9 10
Adrian Winter 32 94% 6 0
Julio Baptista 29 85% 4 7
Brek Shea 33 97% 3 3
Carlos Rivas 31 91% 3 3
Seb Hines 32 94% 2 0
Rafael Ramos 31 91% 0 2
Darwin Ceren 30 88% 0 1
Servando Carrasco 33 97% 0 1
Hadji Barry 22 65% 0 1


As we can see, the projections would put Cyle Larin with 20 goals this season. That's a good estimate given growth from his rookie year, but not getting crazy. Now Molino with 17? That remains to be seen. While I certainly hope that would be the case, I can't say for certain that he would be on pace with Larin's record breaking rookie season. Regardless, he will be a big contributor during the rest of the season.

As for Kaká, he scored more goals last season, but has been setting up this season to do what we really need him to do -- create chances out of the midfield for Larin, Molino, and now Baptista.

Additionally, that would be a goal total of 64! That's two more than the top team in MLS scored last season. So let's dial back the expectations. However, Orlando City scored 46 goals last season, and the Lions are certainly scoring more this season. So, while 64 might be too much to hope for, 56 isn't.

Orlando City continues to score more goals, and tops 50 for the season. Additionally, Cyle beats his scoring record for the year, and Molino makes his presence known. Kaká scores some more, but has a much greater role in feeding the strikers this season, when he doesn't have to do so much himself.

What do you think? Does Orlando City score more this year? Does Cyle top his total? And is all of it enough to get the team into the playoffs?

Vamos Orlando!